State of Carolina: What is Going on at UNC?

Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels dropped their 5th game in their last 7 last night. The 85-65 loss at Clemson tied for the largest margin of defeat ever against the Tigers.

It’s February 11th and, at 14-11 (7-6), preseason top-10 North Carolina is already looking destined to miss the NCAA tournament for the 2nd time in Hubert Davis’ short tenure. The cries of “fire Hubert” have only grown louder over the past few weeks and are all over Carolina twitter. I’m well aware Twitter/X is not reality, and the only thing a fanbase loves more than begging for the backup quarterback is calling for a coach’s job, but it’s time to have a conversation. And while I’m not suggesting AD Bubba Cunningham should pull the plug on Hubert Davis just yet, I think it’s absolutely reasonable to question what’s going on at Carolina and, ultimately, is Hubert the guy?

First I want to look at the tenure in it’s entirety before bringing out the microscope on this year’s team…

Year 1: 23-8 (15-5) Reg season; lost to VT in ACC semis; 8-seed lost to Kansas in Nat’l Championship

Year 2: 19-12 (11-9) Reg season; lost to UVA in ACC quarters; missed NCAAT

Year 3: 25-6 (17-3) Reg season *Champs; lost to NC State in ACC champ; 1-seed lost to Bama in Sweet 16

Year 4: 14-11 (7-6) Currently 7th in the ACC and far outside the NCAAT

Just from looking at this snapshot it’s clear what a mixed bag of results he’s produced since taking over for Roy Williams. His first year with several holdovers was an up and down ride, nearly falling outside the KenPom top 50 before getting hot winning their final 5 regular season games, capped off by the famous win in Cameron to spoil Coach K’s final home game. It was enough to get them far clear of the bubble where they landed as an 8-seed. They then proceeded to make a “Cinderella” run all the way to national championship game, where they would blow the biggest lead in title history.

Even with the stinging end, Carolina was back and Hubert Davis was going to keep the machine moving. The run they went on the last 6 weeks of the season, and the fact they returned their entire core (Bacot, Davis, Love, Black), landed them with the preseason # 1 ranking heading into 2022-2023. But it turned out maybe the larger sample size of the first 3.5 months of the season shouldn’t have been forgotten about, as it turned into a disaster of a season that took them from # 1 to missing the NCAAT entirely.

Losing Caleb Love and Leaky Black in the offseason, Hubert Davis hit a couple homeruns with their replacements in the portal. Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram were instant all-around upgrades and fit much better around RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. Because of this, UNC rebounded from the stunning season nicely and was mostly awesome last year. They didn’t win any postseason hardware, but an ACC regular season title and a NCAAT 1-seed were a sign of the consistently best team of the Hubert era. And with that…

What’s gone wrong with THIS team?

We’re right back in the cycle. The Heels came into the season ranked 9th, with some publications having them top 5. At the time I did think it might’ve been a tad high, but it was certainly justifiable with RJ Davis returning and the talent around him. Hindsight will always be 20/20, and it’s fair to say Hubert did a pretty poor job putting this team together. Let me start out by saying that nobody saw RJ’s regression coming and it has played a huge role in the downfall, but the lack of quality pieces around him has had an effect on said regression.

After smashing last year’s portal cycle, it was a big swing and a miss this offseason. Their prized get, Cade Tyson, was deemed unplayable basically from the start after averaging 16.2 ppg a year ago as one of the best stretch 4s at the mid-major level. He’s looked like he doesn’t belong out there and is averaging just 2.7 ppg in 8.5 mpg. The other two additions, Ven-Allen Lubin and Ty Claude, just aren’t high P5-level quality with only Lubin seeing significant playing time.

While high school recruiting is still an important aspect, the NIL era has made the sport older (i.e. RJ Davis) so relying on freshman for big production is a risky move. With that it’s no surprise 5-star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell weren’t ready to carry load from day one. Powell has flashed at times, but always looked like a work in progress and watching him it still feels as though he’s not totally comfortable in his body and what he’s doing possession to possession. Jackson actually went on a tear during UNC’s best stretch of the season (7-1 with wins over UCLA and SMU), averaging 19.8 ppg on efficient shooting numbers, but he’s crashed back down to earth these past several weeks and has 3 points on 0-11 from the field in their last 2 games.

So, with RJ’s regression, a strikeout in the portal and streaky freshmen, can we at least look to returners making big leaps? Nope, not really. Seth Trimble has looked the best of the bunch and has seen the biggest boost in production, but he just isn’t involved enough in the halfcourt offense and a midseason concussion slowed him down a bit. The others (Cadeau, Washington, Withers) haven’t made much improvement. Elliot Cadeau has shot a little better, but it still isn’t great and he’s also developed a massive turnover problem. Jalen Washington hasn’t taken the next step necessary and is a huge downgrade from Bacot, while Jae’Lyn Withers sort of just takes up space and is what he is.

The roster construction and roster management has derailed a promising season (although maybe there shouldn’t have been so much promise to begin with). This team full of guards can’t shoot (251st in 3pt%), can’t guard the perimeter (209th 3pt% allowed), doesn’t force turnovers (306th in TO rate) and is unable to create extra possessions on the offensive glass (251st in Off reb rate). Last night, and Duke game for that matter, was a culmination and lowlight of a flawed roster that was put together. Clemson dominated the game in practically every facet, and the effort from Carolina honestly felt a little helpless. With little direction on offense and getting beat over and over by seemingly the same things defensively, it simply didn’t look like a very well coached team.

Here we are approaching the end of year 4 and morale is low. They’ll likely need to win their remaining 7 regular season games to have a shot at an at-large bid and avoid missing the tournament for the 2nd time in 3 years. Hubert says he’s planning to hire a GM to help with roster management, but is that REALLY the answer? It doesn’t solve the fact that he and his staff haven’t been able to develop the players that have been in the program for multiple years. If he’s in Chapel Hill next year, which I do believe he will be, the most damning thing for him as a “coach” will be if guys like Jackson and Powell return but don’t show much improvement. You and your GM can bring in all the talent money can buy, but if that talent doesn’t perform then it’s either a development problem or a system problem. And both of those fall on the head coach. Only time will tell.