ACC Hoops Roundup: A Clear Separation

Photo credit: Robert Willett / The News & Observer

I posted our updated weekly power rankings on X earlier today after this weekend’s action, and just under halfway into the conference season there’s a bit of a Mendoza line that’s been formed. At this point the conference is split perfectly down the middle, and you do NOT want to be below the line. The teams are listed in order of the most recent power rankings.

Group 1: Duke, Louisville, Clemson, Wake Forest, SMU, Florida State, North Carolina, Stanford, Pitt

Group 2: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Cal, Virginia, NC State, Boston College, Miami

Now there are obviously tiers within those two groups, but what’s clear is that those in the top half are just on a different level than the bottom half. Everybody in group 1 is well above .500 overall and still has at least an outside shot of reaching the tournament. Not a single team in group 2 is above .500 and has zero shot of an at-large bid. Florida State is also the ONLY team from group 1 to drop a game to a team in group 2, losing at NC State in OT. Kind of a wild stat and one that is pretty damning for the depth of the conference.

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Duke continued their destructive path through the ACC with a 25-point win at Boston College after the Eagles were a little frisky in the first half. Cooper Flagg was spectacular with 28 points on 14 shot attempts and another couple highlight reel dunks. The story here for me was Tyrese Proctor though. He looked the best he has all year and put up a season-high 20 points on 7-12 FG (3-7 3pt) after combining for 3 points in his previous 2 games. Flagg is rightfully the headliner, but the veteran Proctor will be the X-factor come March.

Louisville just keeps winning, beating up on the bottom of the conference this past week. A 24-point road win at Syracuse and a second double digit win over UVA has the Cardinals in the AP Top 25 for the first time in several years. Pat Kelsey is one of the frontrunners for National Coach of the Year, doing most of this shorthanded.

The team Louisville is tied with at 7-1 in the ACC is Clemson after they went up to Pittsburgh and won 78-75 in OT. Chase Hunter shot the crap out of the ball and they were 51.9% from 3 as a team, while Ian Schieffelin recorded another double-double with 15 and 11. After making an appearance in the AP Top 25 in early December, people have kind of forgotten about the Tigers. This is a damn good team that probably should be back in the rankings.

While that game in Pittsburgh was a huge boost for Clemson, Pitt is now holding on for dear life and used up a lot of their room for error. The Panthers have dropped four straight, although all of them have come to the aforementioned “group 1” so their overall metrics are still solid. But a 4-game losing streak in a down ACC will no doubt be a black eye on their resume so they really need to nip this in the bud now. The good news is they’ve got a week off before traveling to Syracuse next weekend in what is a must-win game. A loss there would move them to the wrong side of the bubble.

The other notable result of the weekend was Stanford finally getting on the board with a big road win in Chapel Hill. Duke transfer Jaylen Blakes hit the game-winner with just over a second left and finished with 20 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds. The wildest story of the week was that Blakes sister, Mikayla, turned around and hit a buzzer beater for the Vanderbilt women’s team less than 24 hours later. With zero research I’m going to say a brother/sister combo has never achieved that feat in a weekend. Back to Stanford though, Maxime Reynaud turned in 25 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks which is just a typical night for the future All-American. The Cardinal led at Pitt by 9 multiple times in the first half and held a second half lead at both Clemson and Wake, so big ups to them for breaking through and finally finishing one off. As for Carolina, I wrote a piece last week about Keatts having NC State basketball in program purgatory. There could be something similar coming for Hubert Davis…

Group 2 is a Sad Place

There’s not really anything notable to talk about with the bottom half of the conference. They’re getting their teeth kicked in by the top teams, and then beating up on each other. That’s how you get 9 teams that are .500 or worse overall and not super competitive for the most part. Notre Dame is the only one in the top 100 of the NET at 90th, but even they have lost 4 of their last 5 including at Syracuse on Saturday. Markus Burton returned from injury and has put up good scoring numbers, but it hasn’t translated to wins and they’ve been really poor defensively with him back.

NC State is in a free fall losing 5 of 6 to mainly bad teams, including two blown double digit second half leads at Virginia and Virginia Tech. The only win came by 1 against Notre Dame. The Hokies and Syracuse are both 3-4, beating group 2 opponents while getting boat raced by group 1. Virginia, Boston College and Miami are a combined 2-19 in ACC play. It ain’t good down here.